中文摘要：

采用空间经济计量方法研究空间相关性对耕地保护决策的影响。结果表明：除图斑面积变量外，土地用途、土壤质量、道路可及性、沟渠可及性及县城可及性等变量具有明显的空间自相关，包含空间特征的线性概率模型存在显著的误差空间自相关。由此得出：耕地利用具有空间自相关，制定耕地保护规划时应充分考虑现有地块用途；地块可及性对地块用途有显著影响，耕地保护措施应充分利用地块可及性；耕地保护规划应充分考虑特定地块用途变化的概率，并依据此来划定耕地保护区。

英文摘要：

This paper studies the influence of spatial correlation on cultivated land preservation deci- sion by using the method of spatial econometrics analysis. The result shows that variables like parcel use, soil quality,approximility to road and ditch and county center are spatial correlated distinctly except parcel area, and SAR model error is also significiently spatial correlated similarly. So it can be concluded that, firstly, government should seriously consider the current parcel＇s use when they make out the culti- vated land preservation plan because of spatial dependance among parcels. Secondly, the parcel＇s use con- version is affected remarkablely by its approximability, so government can control cultivated land loss by using it. Lastly, the probohility of cultivated land conversion should be considered, which can be used to draw up the preservation programme properly.