二氧化碳(CO2)排放与减排问题已成为全球关注的焦点。本文运用基于投入产出模型的结构因素分解法对中国1997—2007年CO2排放强度进行了因素分析。与已有研究相比,本文既测度了直接CO2排放,也测度了间接CO2排放;并考虑了各类不同种类能源的碳排放因子的差别,因此更具准确性和合理性。研究结果表明,生产模式的转变是CO2排放强度降低的主要原因,尤其是能源强度;而需求模式的作用较小。在此基础上,提出中国在未来发展中不仅要注重生产领域的减排,更应重视培养清洁需求的模式。
Carbon Dioxide emissions and emission reduction problem have been a global focus. China, the largest country in carbon dioxide emissions, is especially worthy studying. Input-output model and structure decomposition analysis methods have been used in this paper for studying China's CO2 emissions intensity from 1997 to 2007. Compared with existing studies, we measured both direct emissions and indirect emissions and considered difference of carbon emission factors of all kinds of energy, leading to more accurate and rational conclusions. The conclusion indicates that the transformation of the production mode is the main reason of the reduction of CO2 emissions intensity, especially the energy intensity, but the demand mode play a relatively weak role. Finally, we suggest not only to focus on emission reduction in the areas of production, but also to cultivate clean demand mode.