中文摘要：

地方政府过度负债已经成为制约中国经济发展的严峻问题。弄清地方政府负债风险的生成机理，强化地方政府负债风险的监管已成为一项长期的战略任务。本文首先从静态与动态两个视角，建立地方政府负债风险模型，分析负债风险的生成机理，找出影响负债风险的关键因素。并以此为依据，基于西部某省40个区县5年的资料，运用粗糙集理论，建立地方政府负债风险的预警模型。最后，给出地方政府负债风险管理的简要政策建议。

英文摘要：

The debt risk models of local government is built in the paper in order to analyze the static and dynamic factors of debt risk of local government. And then the system of index of precaution of debt risk is constructed. Based on the Rough Set theory and the five years data of 40 counties of one province of western region of China, the model of precaution of debt risk is created. Some Policies are suggested.