中文摘要：

评估和识别敌方行动过程是未来分布式网络化指挥控制的一个新问题。以假设检验原理为基本原则，在任务计划、平台资源、任务状态形式化描述的基础上，对敌组织结构和行动过程进行分析。建立了任务状态影响模型和任务状态观测模型，设计了以任务状态后验概率最大为目标函数、最大似然估计确定任务的概率推理模型。针对概率推理模型特点，利用改进的快速模拟退火算法（vFSA）求解该模型。案例仿真结果表明，该模型能够有效识别敌方行动过程，退火算法能在有限时间内求解出当前状态下的敌最高概率行动。

英文摘要：

The estimation and identification of enemy courses of action became a new problem in the field of distributed network command and control. The organizational structure and the course of action of enemy are analyzed with the principle of hypothe- sis testing, which is based on mission plan, platform resource and the described mission state. The mission state influence model and observation model are built. The probabilistic inference model is designed. Aiming at characteristics of the probabilistic infe- rence model, the model is solved by improved very fast simulated annealing. The simulation results show that the inference mo- del can identify the courses of action, and the annealing arithmetic can find the highest probability action of enemy under the cur- rent state in limited time.