中文摘要：

通过分析国际铜、铝价格和世界经济间的协整关系，基于供需的分析框架和协整相关理论，可以发现L脏（伦敦金属交易所）铜价格和LME铝价格均与Kilian（基利安）经济指数、LME库存、供给量和美元指数之间存在着长期协整关系。且LME铜价格和LME铝价格都与Kilian经济指数间存在明显的正相关，世界经济对LME铜、铝价格有着明显的影响作用：当世界经济状况良好时，铜、铝价格上涨；当界经济状况低迷时，铜、铝价格下跌。同时还发现，LME铜和LME铝都与供给、库存和美元指数呈反比。

英文摘要：

The paper focuses on cointegration relation between global economy and prices of LMECU （copper of London Metal Exchange） and LMEAL （aluminum of London Metal Exchange） by empirical research. Based on demand-supply frame and cointegration related theories, we find that LMECU and LMEAL prices are respectively cointegrated with Kilian economic index, inventory of LME, supplement and US dollar index in the long term. Prices of LMECU and LMEAL are both posi- tively and significantly related with Kilian economic index meanwhile negatively related with supplement, inventory and US dollar index. We also find that the Kilian economic index, supplement, inventory and US dollar index all Granger cause LME- CU and LMEAL prices.