中文摘要：

利用平滑转移向量自回归（LSTVAR）模型和广义脉冲响应函数（GIRF）刻画了我国1978—2014年期间的能源消费与经济产出之间的冲击影响关系。结果表明,不同的经济增长状态下两者之间的相互冲击具有非对称性特征：在经济高速增长时期,能源消费与经济增长协同增长,且经济增长率的提高对能源消费的增加具有长期增长要求;在经济非高速增长时期,经济增长对能源需求拉动更为显著,对能源消费增长率的影响也更长久,此时,试图通过增加能源消费来刺激经济只能产生短期的正向效应,随后将会制约经济的增长,与高速经济增长时期相比,在经济非高速增长时期的能源需求量对经济增长的影响更显著。同样,就能源对经济产出的冲击而言,负向能源冲击对产出的影响大于正向冲击,非对称冲击效应显著。这为理解我国经济增长的阶段性与能源需求之间的动态关系架设了一座桥梁,并为相应经济背景下能源政策制定提供一定学理上的依据。

英文摘要：

In this study we examine possible nonlinearities in dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China for the 1958- 2014 period by using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model（ LSTVAR）. In order to trace the effects of one variable on another,we calculate Generalized Impulse Response Function（ GIRF）. The computed impulse response functions demonstrate asymmetric effects of positive versus negative energy consumption shocks on output growth under different economic condition and vice versa. The result finds that in the high- speed economic growth period,with the acceleration of economic growth,the energy consumption also constantly increases,and the improvement of economic growth rate has long- term requirement for the increase of energy consumption,while in the non- high- speed economic growth period,the economic growth caused by energy demand is more significant,bringing about a greater and more long lasting effect on the energy consumption rate. Specifically,we find that negative energy shocks have a greater effect on output growth than positive energy shocks. Similarly,we find that positive output shock has a greater effect on energy consumption whereas negative shocks have almost no effect on energy consumption. The results of this study have clear and important implications for energy economists and policymakers in China.