中文摘要：

针对近年我国整体“内需不足”和局部“供不应求”并存的消费结构失衡的不良现象，基于居民收入变迁剧烈的现实，提出了“收入变迁效应说”对这种现象予以解释。通过对AIDS模型放松支出等于收入的假设和包含收入变迁特征的动态性扩展的两点改进，构建了一个新的需求系统模型——AIDS动态扩展模型，测度了收入变迁对消费结构产生的均值、方差和残差三个消费需求效应。其结果验证了“收入变迁效应说”的合理性，结果表明收入变迁均值效应作用的失效导致整体内需不足，方差和残差效应的加强使得个别市场需求旺盛，导毂消费结构的失衡出现。

英文摘要：

This article seizes the problem that the imbalance in consumer demand structure, which can be found by the phenomena of the ＂shortage＂ and the ＂insufficient domestic demand co- exist on the market. Due to the fact that resident income evolves significantly, we propose the ＂Income Evolution Effects Theory＂ to explain this phenomena. The AIDS model is also improved by relaxing its assumption that expenditure equals income and giving its dynamic form that includes the three characteristics of income evolution, by which measures the mean, variance and residual effects. The results validate the rationality of ＂ Income Evolution Effects Theory＂, which shows that the mean effect of income evolution＇s disappearance and the variance, residual effects strengthening recently that cause the imbalance in consumer demand structure.