中文摘要：

基于消费者选择偏好,建立了相应零售商利润-订单量的条件风险价值模型。以零售商利润为最优化目标,在市场总需求不确定时,考虑零售商风险偏好、消费者选择偏好及两种产品的可替代性,研究零售商的最优订货策略。研究结果表明,当产品订货量在一定范围时,产品替代性将失去作用;当两种产品总订货量在一定范围时,产品最优订货量随顾客偏好系数及产品替代系数的提高而增大,随替代产品顾客偏好系数和零售商风险规避程度的提高而减小;产品与替代产品间的顾客偏好系数差异越大,两产品总订货量越大。

英文摘要：

Based on consumer preference bias, a profit-order quantity decision model with stochastic demand under Conditional Value-at-Risk（CVaR）criterion was established. In order to optimize retailer＇s profit, when the demand is uncertain, the optimal ordering policy with the consideration of retailer＇s risk preference, consumer preference bias and product substitutability were discussed. The results show that when the order is in certain range, the ordering policy depends on consumer preference bias and not on the product substitutability. When the total order is in certain range, the optimal ordering quantity is positively correlated to the consumer preference bias factor and substitutable factor, and it has a negative correlation to the preference bias of another substitutable product and the retailer＇ s risk averse. If the consumer bias between substitute products is bigger, the total ordering quantity will also be bigger.