中文摘要：

应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法探讨了1995年来江苏省县域尺度人均粮食地域格局变化特征及粮食生产与经济发展的空间匹配格局，并结合空间计量经济模型和定性分析探讨了粮食生产布局变化的驱动机制。结果表明：县域人均粮食存在显著的空间自相关特征，高高聚集和低低聚集趋势增强，全省粮食生产在经济发展相对滞后的洪泽湖流域、里下河地区和沿海农业区中部得到加强，而逐渐从经济发达的苏锡常地区退出；县域经济发展和粮食生产的地域格局呈现出日益显著的空间差异化特征；县域经济发展及其空间溢出效应是耕地非农化和农业结构调整产生区域差异，进而导致人均粮食地域格局变化的重要驱动力，政策导向对该地域格局变化也有重要影响，农业自然地理条件对粮食生产布局的决定性作用已有所减弱。在土地和劳动力等资源的比较优势利用基础上形成的社会经济发展综合驱动力对粮食生产布局产生着日益显著的影响。

英文摘要：

Regional grain supply-consumption balance is an important indicator for national food security. Based on GIS techniques and spatial autocorrelation analysis, regional changes of per capita grain possession, grain production and economic development at county analyzed. In addition, a spatial econometric model was used to analy, changes. The study showed that： 1） 63.08 percent of counties distributed in Xuzhou city and south of Jiangsu suffered a decrease of per capita grain possession. In 2005, 17 counties＇ grain possession per capita was under 300kg; 2） the Global Moran＇s I of per capita grain possession at county scale was 0. 2338 in 1995, 0. 4222 in 2000 and 0. 5345 in 2005, significant at 0.01 level. Significantly positive correlation of per capital grain possession existed among regions. LISA cluster map demonstrated that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in Valley of Hongze Lake and Lixia River, and the middle of coastal area, while counties with lower per capita grain possession gathered in southern part of Jiangsu, especially in Taihu Lake surrounding areas. Regional segment of grain production became more and more evident; 3） The Bivariate Global Moran＇s I between per capita grain possession and per capita GDP was -0. 2375 in 1995, -0. 3616 in 2000 and -0. 4698 in 2005, significant at 0.01 level. Economic growth and grain production displayed a notably reversed trend at county scale; 4） Change of grain production is a complex process, which is affected by many comprehensive factors. The results estimated using spatial econometric model dedicated that economic growth, income increase and population spillover significantly affected the grain production. Economic development and agricultural policies were playing an important role in grain production. The restriction of physical condition to grain production was gradually weakening. In other words, integrated driving comparatively advantage of land and labor force, forces of socioeconomic growth, based upon the had a