中文摘要：

应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法，探讨了1995年以来江苏省县域尺度人均粮食地域格局变化特征及粮食生产与经济发展的空间匹配格局，初步分析了粮食生产地域格局变化的驱动因素。结果表明：县域人均粮食存在显著的空间自相关特征，高高聚集和低低聚集趋势增强，全省粮食生产在经济发展相对滞后的洪泽湖流域、里下河地区和沿海农业区中部得到加强，而逐渐从经济发达的苏锡常地区退出；县域经济发展和粮食生产的地域格局呈现出日益显著的空间差异化特征；县域经济发展和政策导向是人均粮食地域格局变化的重要驱动因素，农业自然地理条件对粮食生产布局的决定性作用已有所减弱，在土地和劳动力等资源的比较优势利用基础土形成的社会经济发展综合驱动力对粮食生产布局产生着日益显著的影响。图4，参21。

英文摘要：

Regional grain supply-demand balance is an important premise for national food security. Based on GIS techniques and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the regional pattern changes of per capita grain possession and the matching patterns of grain production and economic development on county scale in Jiangsu province were considered. This paper also analyzed the driving forces of the regional pattern changes of per capita grain possession. The study showed that： ①There were significant positive spatial autocorrelation of per capital grain possession, and the relativity increased. It meant that the global spatial disparity decreased, and local area became uniformity, counties with higher per capita grain possession agglomerated, so did counties with lower per capita grain possession. Counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in Valley of Hongze Lake and Lixia River and the middle of coastal area from 1995. However, counties with lower per capita grain possession gathered in southern part of Jiangsu, especially in Taihu Lake area. Area division of grain production became more and more evidence. ②Grain production and economic development displayed an increasingly spatial inequality character on the county scale. ③Grain production distribution change is a complex process, which is affected by comprehensive factors. Economic development and agricultural policy have been playing a more and more important role in grain production distribution. The restriction of physio-geographical condition to grain production distribution has been gradually weekened. Finally, the advice of regional grain production regulation strategy was proposed.