中文摘要：

应用小波分析技术研究我国棉花产量时间序列周期波动规律，得出建国以来我国棉花产量序列存在5a、10a、14a和24a特征时间尺度，并认为5a、10a特征时间尺度主要反映了我国体制、政策方面因素对棉花产量的影响；14a、24a尺度则反映了气候灾害等自然条件对棉花产量的影响。应用小波分解重构技术，对我国棉花产量序列突变点进行了试探性的检测，得出1983年为我国棉花产量序列的一个突变点的结论，认为小波分解重构技术应用于棉花产量序列突变点的研究是切实可行的。图5，参12。

英文摘要：

The fluctuating rule of cotton output in China during the last 56 years is studied using wavelet analysis technology. The results show that the cotton output has 5- year, 10- year, 14- year and 24- year characteristic time scales, and we think that the 5- year and 10- year characteristic time scales reflect the institution and policy factors influencing on cotton output while the 14 - year and 24 - year indicate the climate factors such as natural disaster influencing on cotton output. Then we make a tentative detection on breakdown point of cotton output using the wavelet decomposition ＆ reconstruction technology. We draw the conclusion that the year of 1983 is one breakdown point of all data of cotton output in China and the D＆R technology is feasible in this study field.