中文摘要：

基于系统动力学的研究方法，构建了由企业外部知识源、知识存量和技术创新成果3个子系统构成的系统动力学模型，将周期性波动市场需求环境作为系统的外生变量，来揭示该环境下企业吸收能力与创新绩效的动态演化规律。通过对系统中的6个关键变量的仿真结果分析，揭示了系统的演化规律，同时对企业建立外部知识源的时间、企业潜在和现实吸收能力的影响变量进行了敏感性分析，根据分析结果，提出了在周期性波动市场需求环境下，提升企业吸收能力和创新绩效的政策建议。

英文摘要：

Dynamics is one of the important characteristic of absorptive capacity. The past literatures explored this characteristic in two ways： the dimensions of absorptive capacity process and the affection to absorptive capacity by external environment. However, little literatures consider these two ways in a whole framework. Based on the method of system dynamics, this study constructs the system dynamics model including enterprise external know- ledge source subsystem, knowledge stock subsystem and technology innovation results subsystem, which regards the market demand environment of cyclical fluctuations as the exogenous variable to reveal the dynamic evolution mechanism of enterprises＇ absorptive capacity and innovation performance. This paper analyzes the simulation re- suits of 6 key variables in the system, explores the system＇s evolutionary rule, and sensitively analyzes the time of enterprises＇ establishing external knowledge network, the influence factors of the potential and realized absorp- tive capacity. According to the analyses＇ results, we put forward suggestions that improve absorptive capacity and innovative performance under the market demand environment of cyclical fluctuations