为了解决标准资产组合风险分析(SPAN)保证金系统的开放性问题,本文采用测度风险的参数、半参数和非参数VaR方法和描述相关结构的时变Copula技术,给出了VaR—SPAN系统中主要输入参数的设定方案.实例计算结果表明,与采用VaR.SPAN计算流程计算得到的国内期货产品组合所需的保证金大小相比,交易所实际收取的保证金偏高.
In order to solve the publicity issue of the standard portfolio analysis of risk (SPAN) margin system, this paper adoptes parametric, semi-parametric, non-parametric value-at-risk (VaR) methods measuring the risk, and time-varying Copula technique describing the dependence structure to provide a technical solution to set the main input parameters of VaR-SPAN system. Using real example the margin requirement of domestic futures portfolio are calculated with VaR-SPAN calculation process. The results show that the actual margins charged by domestic exchange are excessive.