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中文摘要：
分析了根据树木年轮资料重建的青藏高原中东部过去2485年来温度变化幅度、速率、周期、原因及未来趋势,发现研究区极端气候事件与全球同步出现,如中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪增温等.历史上最大的温度变幅和速率都发生在＂东晋事件＂（343-425AD）期间,而非20世纪后半期.过去青藏高原中东部地区温度序列存在显著的1324,800,199,110,2-3a的准周期（P〈0.01）,其中,1324,199和110a周期与太阳活动有关.温度变化在很大程度上受控于太阳活动：千年尺度周期决定了温度变化趋势长期走向,百年尺度周期控制了温度变化幅度,而太阳活动极小期对应冷期出现.预估结果显示未来这一地区温度将下降,到2068AD前后温度下降到谷底,2068AD后再次升温.
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