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树轮记录的天山南坡阿克苏河过去300a径流变化特征

ISSN号：1000-0240
期刊名称：冰川冻土
时间：2011
页码：744-751
分类：P337[天文地球—水文科学;水利工程—水文学及水资源;天文地球—地球物理学]
作者机构：中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室, 中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002
相关基金：科技部公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200806011）;国家自然科学基金项目（40975056;41071072）;国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2010CB951001）;中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目（sqj2010005）;新疆气象局青年基金项目（201034）;中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目（IDM200801）;国家自然科学重大基金项目（40890051）资助
相关项目：新疆天山北麓基于树木年轮气候重建的云杉种群生态学研究

关键词：天山南坡, 阿克苏河, 树轮, 径流量, south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, Aksu River, tree-ring, runoff

中文摘要：

利用采自天山南坡阿克苏河上游5个采样点的树木年轮样本，建立了5个树木年轮宽度年表．树轮宽度年表与近48a阿克苏河径流资料相关普查表明，阿克苏河年径流量与树轮标准化宽度年表显著相关，最高单相关系数达0．611（α〈0．00001）．利用该年表重建了阿克苏河过去300a的年径流量系列，经多方面验证表明，重建结果具有较好的可信性．过去300a中，阿克苏河年径流量具有2．65a、4．98a、51a的变化准周期，其中在1722、1753、1799、1829年阿克苏河年径流发生了较为明显的突变．研究表明，尽管在全球气候变暖的背景下，阿克苏河近45a来的径流量呈明显的增加趋势，但其增加幅度并不是近300a来最明显的，年径流量并未超过300a里的极值．近百年来阿克苏河径流量在1900年代偏多，1910年代偏少，1920～1960年代基本在平水状态，1970—1980年代偏少，1990年代以后阿克苏河处于丰水期；近300a来阿克苏河年径流变差系数代际变化有略微下降趋势，尤其是1960年代至今变差系数相对较小．20世纪50年代可能是近300年来洪涝灾害最为频繁的年代．另外，阿克苏河年径流量与北极涛动（AO）在低频变化上具有很好的一致性，并对AO有着较为强烈的滞后响应．

英文摘要：

In this paper, Picea schrenkiana Fisch. lected from five sites in the tree-ring samples of et Mey, which were colAksu River basin on the south slopes of Tianshan Mountains in 2005, are used to develop tree-ring width chronolgies based on standard dendrochronological and dendrohydrology methods. Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlation coefficient is 0. 611（degree of confidence is much greater than the 99. 9 percent） between ZDH standard width chronologies and annual runoff of Aksu River. The result has distinct physiological significance, based on which a runoff series of 300 years is well reconstructed. It is verified that the reconstructed runoff is reliable by leave-one-out. The following results are obtained by analyzing the 300 a reconstructed runoff series. 1） there were significant change cycles of 2.65 a, 4.98 a and 51a; with 4 abrupt changes in 1722, 1753, 1799, 1829; 2） the runoff of Aksu River has distinctly increased in the past 45 year along with global warming, but the increasing speed has not been the fastest and the annual runoff has not reached the maximum in the past 300 year. Annual runoff averaged over the past 300 year is 109.47× 10^8 m^3· a^-1 , with the maximum of 109. 47 × 10^8 m^3· a^-1 and the minimum of 43.28 × 10^8 m^3 · a^-1 the coefficient of variation of the recon- structed runoff series is 0.16, which demonstrates that the primary supply sources of the Aksu River is snow-ice meltwater. The frequency of extreme high flow year is less than that of low flow year; consequently the flood-waterlogging damage is few; 3） research on the decadal change of runoff and coefficient of variation during the last 100 years revealed that there were a partial high flow period in the 1900s, a partial low flow period in the 1910s, a normal flow period from the 1920s to the 1960s, a partial low flow period from the 1970s to the 1980s and a high flow period after the 1990s. Flood-waterlogging damages were most frequent in the 1950s; 4） lag cross correlation analys

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