以管道、钢缆等典型的连续系统可靠性建模为背景,通过将管道类连续系统离散成若干单元(作为一个串联系统对待),应用最小次序统计量推导出了连续系统强度的概率密度函数,分析了基于最小次序统计量思想的串联系统相关失效可靠性建模。讨论了连续系统材料强度的两种影响因素,即材料自身的不均匀性和材料质量的不稳定性,建立了管道类连续系统可靠性模型(该模型能反映单元间的失效相关性),并通过Monte Carlo方法模拟验证了所建立模型的正确性。最后,探讨了管道类连续系统的单元划分原则,并对大管道系统的失效概率进行了估算,为管道、钢缆等连续系统的可靠性设计与可靠性计算提供依据。
With continuous system like pipeline and wire cable reliability modeling as the background,a continuous system strength probability density function was educed by minimal order statistics,which was taken as a series system comprising of a number of virtual segments. Next, dependent failure reliability modeling of the series system was analyzed based on minimal sequence statistics model. Then, two influence factors of material strength of pipeline were discussed such as material inhomogeneity and material quality instability, the reliability model of continuous system like pipeline was established which could reflect the dependent failure among segments and was validated by Monte Carlo. Last,the principle of segment-partition was discussed and the failure probability of lone pipeline was computed, providing foundation for the reliability design and computation of pipeline or wire cables.