中文摘要：

收集了1997年到2012年我国31个省份城镇居民的汽车拥有量,利用创新扩散的Bass模型对数据进行拟合分析,揭示了家用汽车在我国不同区域中扩散的特点。结果表明：（1）各省份汽车扩散曲线都大致呈现＂S＂曲线走向,但是有些地区的快速增长点出现的时间不同;（2）各省份拟合得到的创新系数p和模仿系数q存在着明显差异,共同之处是创新系数p普遍远远小于模仿系数q;（3）创新系数p和模仿系数q与各地区的经济发展水平具有显著相关性。最后,利用上述的研究结果对汽车企业提出了建议。

英文摘要：

This study gathered the automobile diffusion data across 31 Chinese provinces from1997 to 2012.Bass model of innovation diffusion is applied to conduct the data fitting analysis,which reveals the diffusion characteristics of private automobile in different regions of our country.The results show that：（1）the diffusion curve of each provinces is roughly ＂ S＂ shape,but the take off point appears in different time;（2）there exists obvious difference between the innovation rate p and the imitation rate q fitted by each province,but p is generally far smaller than q in common;（3）significantly correlation are observed between the rate p,q and the regional economic level.Finally,the implications of these findings are discussed.