中文摘要：

考虑消费者社会影响力的异质性及客户流失现象对服务扩散的影响，基于状态转移的思想构建了一个持续动态的服务产品扩散模型。通过实证分析检验了模型的有效性，分析了客户流失导致的购买价值和影响价值这两方面的损失，构建了流失客户价值模型。研究表明：①对于服务产品的扩散，考虑消费者异质性和客户流失因素的模型比已有模型更具精确性及适用性，拟合效果优于传统的Bass模型、G／sG模型及服务成长模型；②对于服务产品，早期流失客户带来的价值损失要大于后期客户，影响者客户流失带来的价值损失犬于模仿者，且流失时间越长，价值损失越大。

英文摘要：

Considering social influence heterogeneity and attrition of customers, we propose a continuous and dynamic diffusion model for service products based on state transition probability and test its validity of the model by empirical analysis. We also assess the true value of a lost customer based on the purchase value and influence value synthetically. The results show that. （1） the forecasting effectiveness of H-SG model is better than Bass model, G/SG model, and service growth model （2） for service products, the loss of an early adopter is more than that of a later adopter; the loss of an influential value is more than that of an imitator, and the more time of attrition, the more value lost.