中文摘要：

本文探讨了城市化地区水资源承载力的内涵和特性。通过分析城市化对地区水循环、社会经济和生态与环境的影响，以“自然-人工”水循环为基础，以可持续发展作为控制目标，采用目标综合分析与多级灰关联评价相结合的方法，建立了一个城市化地区水资源承载力模型。通过对北京市通州区实例研究表明，该方法可为解决城市化地区水资源和生态与环境问题、指导水资源合理配置，对可持续发展战略的实施提供理论依据和技术支持。

英文摘要：

The connotation and characteristics of water resources carrying capacity were discussed by analyzing the effect of urbanization on water cycle, social economy, ecology and environment. Based on the concept of natural-social water cycle and following the sustainable development principle, a water resources carrying capacity model for the urbanized area was developed by adopting a comprehensive analysis and applying the multi-level gray relative analysis method. This model was applied to analyze the water resources in Tongzhou District, Beijing. The result showed that the model is feasible for solving the resources and eco-environmental problems happened to the urbanized area and provided a theoretical basis for water resources deployment and the implementation of sustainable development strategy.