作为不可再生的资源,稀有矿产在战略性新兴产业中有着广泛而重要的用途。近年来。全球稀有矿产品供求关系趋紧。稀有矿产领域的国际竞争不断升级。在对六大类22种稀有矿产资源进行界定.分析其在战略性新兴产业中应用的基础上.本文采用三因素分析框架,从供应风险、环境影响、供应受限的经济影响三个维度,设计了9项指标,对稀有矿产资源的战略性做出定量评估。结果显示,铂族金属的战略性最高.铯的战略性最低。为进一步提高评估结果的可靠性,本文运用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性分析。模拟结果表明.在考虑了分项指标估算结果的影响之后.本文对22种稀有矿产资源战略性的评估结果依然成立。鉴于稀有矿产资源在战略性新兴产业中日益增强的重要性,应尽快制定实施稀有矿产资源的国家战略.着力提升战略性新兴产业关键原材料保障能力,实现稀有矿产可持续开发利用.维护国家资源安全。
As non-renewable resources, rare minerals have wide and important uses in strategic emerging industries. In recent years, the international competition in the field of rare minerals is becoming intensifying with tightening supply and demand on the global rare mineral market. Based upon the classification on 22 kinds of rare minerals in six categories and the analysis on the important uses of each rare mineral in strategic emerging industries, this paper gives a quantitative strategic assessment on rare minerals from three dimensions of supply risk, environmental impact and economic impact of supply restrictions by 9 indicators. The result from available data indicates that the platinum group metals have the highest strategic importance among 22 kinds of rare minerals while the strategic importance of cesium is the lowest. The uncertainty analysis by Monte Carlo method made in this paper further verifies that the result of assessment is of enough reliability. Given the rising importance of rare mineral resources as critical raw materials in strategic emerging industries, the Chinese government should step up to develop .and implement National Rare Mineral Resource Strategy with comprehensive policy tools so as to effectively deal with the intensifying international competition in the field of rare mineral, better guarantee the sustainable use of rare minerals and safeguard national resource security.