本文在对出口商品按技术含量分类的基础上,利用最新的贸易统计数据研究了中国产业国际竞争力现状及演变趋势。研究结果表明:①把中国工业制成品按技术含量低、中、高的次序排列,其国际竞争力大致呈U型分布;②中国的出口优势产品与潜力产品之间的距离比较近.这为出口结构实现平稳转型奠定良好的微观基础:③机械及运输设备等中高技术制成品将会引领中国出口结构的转型升级.目前国际竞争力较强的劳动密集型产品群体将会出现分化:④将来在低技术产品领域挑战中国的领先地位的主要是南欧国家、中东欧转型国家及印度,在中等技术制成品领域中国主要与欧洲大陆发达国家竞争。在高技术制成品领域中国需要追赶和超越的目标主要是美国、欧洲和东亚地区的发达经济体。为提高中国产业国际竞争力,政府应该高度重视中等技术制成品竞争力不强、产品密度不大的突出问题.客观看待劳动密集型制成品在出口结构转型升级中的双重作用,适时优化高技术产业政策组合.把价值链攀升作为政策最优先目标。
On the basis of classification according to the technical content of export commodities and the latest trade statistics, this paper studies the current situation and the trend of the international competitiveness of Industries in China. The results show that: (j)If China's manufactured products are arranged from low to high according to their technical content, their competitiveness, in general, shows an U-distribution. @The distance between current advantage exports and potential advantage products is close, which lay a good micro-foundation for the export structure of China to achieve a smooth transition. (~)Some medium or high-tech manufactured goods, such as machinery and transport equipment, will lead the direction of China's export structure's transformation and upgrading, and the labor-intensive product groups with obvious competitiveness currently will be differentiated. (~) In the future, t]he countries challenging China's leading position in the field of low-tech products are mainly the Southern European countries, Central and Eastern European transition countries and India; In the field of medium- tech products, China mainly competes against the developed countries in Europe; In the field of high-teeh products, China mainly needs to overtake the United States and the developed economies in Europe and East Asia. To improve the international competitiveness of industries in China, governments should attach great importance to the outstanding problem that the medium-tech manufactured goods are uneompetitive and its density is relatively small, take an objective view of the dual role of labor-intensive manufactured products in the transformation and upgrading of the export structure, optimize the combination of high-tech industry policy timely, and view value chain climbing as the most priority objective.