为了探讨 climatological 的缺乏,在影响中国的热带气旋(TC ) 上研究,我们在这个区域与不同紧张分析 TC 的分布,基于最好轨道的 TC,为 19492011 的数据由上海台风研究所提供了。我们也用 Gumbel 概率分发与不同紧张介绍 50 年、 100 年的回来时期 TC 的分布。结果证明有不同紧张的 TC 在中国和它的包围的水的各种各样的区域上施加特殊效果。在这些不同区域上的 TC 的极端紧张分布也不同。超级、严重的台风主要影响台湾岛和福建和浙江省的沿海的区域,当有更低的紧张的台风和 TC 最经常影响华南时。有影响台湾岛的 50 年、 100 年的回来时期的可能的最大的 TC 紧张(PMTI ) 在 890 hPa 下面;有影响福建和浙江省的沿海的区域的一个 50 年的回来时期的 PMTI 是不到 910 hPa,并且那与一个 100 年的回来时期是不到 900 hPa;有影响海南,广东,和华南海的北部分的沿海的区域的一个 50 年的回来时期的 PMTI 比有一个 100 年的回来时期的 930 hPa,和那是不到 920 hPa 的低。结果在中国的不同区域上为极端 TC 紧张的评价提供一本有用参考书。
To address the defi ciency of climatological research on tropical cyclones (TCs) infl uencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with diff erent intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for 1949-2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50-and 100-yr return-period TCs with diff erent intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with diff erent intensities exert distinctive eff ects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these diff erent regions also diff er. Super and severe typhoons mainly infl uence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities infl uence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity (PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods infl uencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa;the PMTI with a 50-yr return period infl uencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over diff erent regions of China.