中文摘要：

根据概率统计模型的运算特性,通过对模型参数进行适当修正,由此改进了泥石流灾害敏感性计算模型。选取岷江上游为研究区域,利用RS和GIS技术,提取2005年、2009年、2013年6类土地利用类型[耕地、林（草）地、裸地、城乡建筑用地、水域、冰川]。针对传统模型的不足,运用改进模型定量分析研究区内不同坡度级别、不同岩性条件下土地利用类型对泥石流灾害的敏感性。研究发现,当坡度为25°-45°时,林（草）地、裸地、城乡建筑用地对泥石流的敏感性较大,在第四系、志留系和泥盆系地层中,耕地及城乡建筑用地对泥石流的敏感性较大。对比分析表明,此改进模型在不同影响因素条件下均表现较好,其计算结果更加准确。

英文摘要：

The purpose of this study is the development,improvement,and application of probability model for calculating sensitivity of land use types to debris flow. With the upper reaches of Min River as the study area of Sichuan,China,field survey as the foundation,systematic sensitivity analysis of land use types to debris flow hazard is launched in this study. Employing the Arc GIS Software,Remote Sensing technology,and using Google Earth satellite images as a supplement,the study area has been divided into six land use types： arable land,forest,bare land,urban and rural construction land,water,glacier. For hazards mitigation in this area,much research has been conducted on the influence of physical factors on the occurrence of debris flow,but relatively little attention has been paid to the study of the integrated and quantitative influences of physical and human activities factors,especially the impact of human activities. In this paper,an improved model was introduced to study the relationship between debris flow and land use types,and the sensitivity value of land use types to debris flow was systematically calculated in the background of the influence of different factors. Compared with the traditional calculation model,the analysis result based on the proposed model is in conformity with that of field survey,showing the most vulnerable land use types to debris flow are the forest,bare land,urban and rural construction land,when the slope is found in 25 ° -45 °,meanwhile,the area within the strata of Quaternary,Silurian,Devonian,the sensitivity values great in farmland,urban and rural construction land. Furthermore,the research indicates that the improved model will effectively predict debris flow occurrences with a more stable analysis result in the upper reaches of Min River.