中文摘要：

应用组合预测方法，对浙江省旅游业主要指标的统计数据建立数学模型，对旅游经济发展进行现状分析和前景预测，并探讨了旅游经济对社会经济发展的影响。研究表明所建模型具有很好的拟合精度，较好的刻画了浙江省旅游经济的发展过程，这将为研究和调控旅游经济发展趋势提供有益的参考依据．

英文摘要：

In this paper mathematical model was set up based on statistical data, concerning numbers of main indexes of tourism in Zhejiang by using the combination forecast method. Present status of the tourism economy was analysed, while the prospect forecasted.We also probed into the influence of tourism to social and economical development. As presented in this paper, the model characterized the development process of tourism in Zhejiang objectively, with quite a good fitting precision.Consequently, it may provide reference to research and regulation on development trend of tourism economy.