中文摘要：

将混沌理论引入到水质预测中，分析海河溶解氧时间序列，进行相空间重构和计算最大Lyapunov指数．结果表明，海河溶解氧时间序列具有混沌特性．可以对其进行短期预测．在此基础上，应用一阶加权局域预测模型进行了预测，预测结果具有一定的精度．为水质预测研究提供了新的思路．

英文摘要：

Apply chaos theory to the prediction of water quality, time series of dissolved oxygen of Hai River are analyzed, reconstruct phase space and calculate maximum Lyapunov exponent. The results show that dissolved oxygen time series of Hai River has chaotic property. It appears that short term forecasting of water quality is feasible. On the base of last work, water quality of river has been forecasted by using an add-weighted one-rank local-region method, the precision of results can be accepted. It offers a new method to the prediction of water quality.