中文摘要：

运用随机前沿引力模型,系统分析了我国对东盟国家的农产品出口效率及潜力。实证分析显示：（1）贸易非效率因素是降低我国农产品出口效率的主要因素。东盟国家增加技术性贸易壁垒、加入APEC、与我国成立FTA均有助于提高我国农产品出口效率,其加重进口关税水平,则会对我国农产品出口效率起到抑制作用。（2）东盟国家中,我国对马来西亚、印度尼西亚、越南的农产品出口效率最高,对应的出口潜力提升空间较为狭小;对泰国、菲律宾、新加坡的农产品出口效率及出口潜力提升空间属于居中位置;而对老挝、文莱、缅甸、柬埔寨4国的农产品出口效率低下,对应的出口潜力提升空间较为广阔。最后提出了相应的对策和建议。

英文摘要：

We apply Stochastic frontier gravity model to systematically research the efficiency and potential of China＇s agricultural products export to the ASEAN countries. The results of empirical analysis show that：（ 1） The trade non-efficiency factors are the main factors that reduce the efficiency of China＇s agricultural products export. If the ASEAN countries increase technical trade barriers,join in APEC,or become the members of FTA,these will be helpful to the improvement of the export efficiency. If the ASEAN countries increase the import tariff level,it will inhibit the export efficiency.（ 2） Among the ASEAN countries,the efficiency of China＇s agricultural products export to Malaysia,Indonesia and Vietnam is higher,so the corresponding export potential promotion is smaller; the efficiency and potential of China＇s agricultural products export to Thailand,Philippines and Singapore are moderate; the efficiency of China＇s agricultural products export to Laos,Brunei,Burma and Cambodia is lower,thus the corresponding export potential promotion is larger. Finally,some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given.