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中文摘要：
近年来随着区域经济一体化的发展,双边和诸边自由贸易协定不断增多,全球贸易网络日益复杂。鲍德温（Baldwin）在2003年提出东亚地区在未来50年内可能形成以中国和日本为轮轴国,其他国家为辐条国的＂自行车＂网络贸易模式。本文首先利用扩展的引力方程证实了东亚地区确实存在区内贸易的偏好,又通过对东亚主要国家之间以及东亚主要国家与世界主要地区之间的HM指数对比分析,验证＂自行车模式＂形成的原因,指出中国应积极巩固自身的轮轴国地位,逐渐构建东亚自由贸易区,而上海自由贸易区建设对此具有积极意义。
英文摘要：
With the rapid development of regionalism, the amount of bilateral trade agreements （FTAs） has been rising remarkably, and the network of FTAs around the world is becoming more and more complicated. A new regionalism system called ＂The Hub-and-spoke System＂ first appeared in North America and provided the world with a new way of approaching regionalism. In 2003, Badwin named the special ＂H＆S System＂ in East Asia ＂The Bicycle System＂, with Japan and China as the hub country This paper used the extended format of gravity formula and HM index to do an empirical study on Japan and China＇s hub-ness in East-Asia. It also gave some clue about how China could deal with the newly-emerging system in East Asia. Especially in China today, when we are devoted to the construction of Shanghai Free Trade Zone, it is quite realistic for China to become a hub country and to expand international trade through a more free and win-win solution.
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