中文摘要：

以《科学学研究》为例,分析了h指数的时间演变规律,发现h指数呈现出成长曲线的特征,该期刊1996年进入成长起,2005年进入成熟期。在进入成熟期之前,期刊的h指数和篇均被引量之间高度线性相关,也就是说在成熟期之前,可以用篇均被引量代替h指数来进行期刊评价。

英文摘要：

Taking scientific journals as an example, this paper analyzes the time evolution of h-index. It finds that h-index shows the characteristics of growth curve, the journal stepped into growth stage in 1996 and mature stage in 2005. There is a highly linear correlation between the journal＇s h-index and the average amount of citation per article before the year of 2005. That is to say, instead of using h-in-dex, the average amount of citation per article can be used to evaluate an academic journal in the periods precedent to its mature stage.