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中文摘要：
根据1993―2008年TOPEX和Jason-1观测的南海海面高度资料和1986―2008年广东省沿海验潮站潮位资料,分析南海绝对海平面及广东沿海相对海平面变化趋势,结果显示：近16年南海（绝对）海平面平均上升率为4.5 mm/a,近23年广东沿海相对海平面上升率为2～3 mm/a,较南海绝对海平面上升率低1～2 mm/a;月平均海平面及年平均海平面变化均存在极强的同步性,在年平均海平面变化中,验潮站的最高值一致出现于2001年。预估未来30年南海海平面比常年升高9～17 cm。海平面上升将加剧珠江口感潮河段的咸潮灾害。
英文摘要：
According to the data colllected from TOPEX and Jason-1 and tidal stations along the coast of Guangdong province during 1986-2008, the trend of absolute sea level changes in the South China Sea （SCS） and the relative sea level changes along the coast are analyzed. The results show that the averaged rate of absolute sea-level rising in the SCS was 4.5mm/a during 1993-2008; and the relative sea level rising rate along the coast was 2-3 mm/a during 1986-2008. The relative sea-level rising rate along the coast is 1-2mm lower than the absolute sea-level rising rate in the SCS. Tide gauge records along the coast show that the sea-level changes in both monthly- and yearly-scale are overall consistent among different locations, and the highest sea level occurred in 2001. It＇s predictive that the sea level of the SCS will rise by 9-17cm in 30 years, and the saline water disaster will be increase accordingly in the Peal River area.
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