中文摘要：

本文利用多元自适应回归样条（MARS）方法建立了麋鹿景区游客数与社会经济等要素之间的关系，讨论了各类社会、经济要素的作用区间和作用过程。结果显示。该模型可以较好的揭示客源地各项要素与该地游客数量之间的相互关系。其中客源地经济要素和各类学生数是决定该地游客数的主要因素，其中经济的影响以限制为主，其他要素对景区游客数的作用一般也受到经济要素的制约。各类学生数对景区游客的作用则以促进为主。

英文摘要：

This paper built the relationship between tourist numbers of scenic spots for David＇s deer and social as well as economic elements by means of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines （MARS） method, and discussed the function scales and its process of every social and economic element. The results show that MARS method has a favorable indication of the above mentioned relationship. The economic dements of tourism-generating destinations and various kinds of students are the dominant factors of its tourist numbers which is mostly restricted by economic influence. Generally, the functions of other factors are also restricted by economy, and the various kinds of students play an active role in the number of tourists.