中文摘要：

对旅游流时空演变规律的研究，有助于揭示旅游系统内部各要素间相互作用的过程和机理。本文采用K-Means聚类法对盐城麇鹿生态旅游区游客数进行时空聚类，分别从省内和国内（省际）两个尺度上讨论了麇鹿生态旅游区游客变化的阶段性和市场划分，结果表明，1998-2005年间省内旅游流和国内（省际）旅游流从时间上可分为三个阶段，并较好地划分出了四种不同的客源地类型。根据时空聚类中不同类别中心点的变化，详细论述了麇鹿生态旅游区省内和国内（省际）旅游流随时间和空间变化的规律，揭示了不同类别之间旅游流整体变化特征，可为旅游规划、产品开发、市场营销以及旅游区的运营、管理和决策提供依据。K-Means聚类法能够从不同尺度上揭示旅游流时空变化的详细信息，可作为旅游流时空分布与演化特征分析的有效工具和手段。

英文摘要：

The research of the spatio-temporal evolution discipline of tourist flow helped to reveal inter-functional course and mechanism in terms of each inner-element of tourism system, and also provided bases for tourism planning, product development, as well as marketing and tourism management. This paper adopted K-Means cluster to undertake spatio-temporal analysis of the number of tourists in Yancheng eco-tourism area for David＇ s deer. The phrases and market division of tourist changes in eco-tourism area for David＇s deer were discussed from two scales, namely, inner-provincial and inter-provincial. The results showed that the tourist flow of the above-mentioned two scales could be divided into three stages between 1998 and 2005, and could be marked off four different types of customer market properly. Yancheng eco-tourism area for David＇s deer ought to ascertain its target market and the management strategy according to the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the tourist flow. The most important core tourist markets of this eco- tourism area were the fourth and the third kinds of customer market, namely, Yancheng and Nanjing city in Jiangsu Province. When it comes to domestic tourist market, the priority should be given to the fourth one--Jiangzhehu area--as the basic market to explore. Temporal characteristics of tourist flow in different stages indicated that the tourist market of Yancheng eco-tourism area for David＇s deer varied amid relative stability, and represented distinctive regional difference. Except effects of space distance and transportation, the diversification of tourist flow was closely related with economic development, tourist motivation and choice, as well as theme tourism activities and tourism promotion. The pressing task for eco-tourism area was how to protect its resources and environment. The increase of tourists couldn＇t be pursued simply. We should attach importance to the optimization of tourism market structure, and select tourist market that would be highly respon