中文摘要：

以多期遥感图像为信息源，用GIS、RS手段和马尔珂夫链模型对新疆于田绿洲土地景观格局的动态变化进行了探讨和预测。研究结果表明：20多年来，研究区以荒漠为基质、以克里雅河为廊道、以农田和草地为主体斑块的宏观分布格局基本未变。总体上，生态保护，封沙育草取得了较大的成绩。草地面积的扩大和荒漠面积的缩小意味着绿洲稳定性增强。水体、湿地始终受到较大程度的人为干扰。人类在生产活动中，不断地以消耗和利用河流水资源得以生存和发展。趋势预测今后农田、水体、湿地、高草和中草持续增加，而低草、盐碱地和荒漠进一步减少。整个区域呈现荒漠、草地和农田三足鼎立之势。

英文摘要：

Based on the Remote Sensing Image and the other relative data, combined with the spatial analysis of GIS and Marlov, the landscape pattern and its dynamic change in Yutian Oasis in Keliya were preliminarily discussed. Conclusions were as follows. Since 1976, the study area has appeared desert as matrix, Keliya River as corridor and farm land and grassland as main patches. This pattern almost has not changed. As a whole the ecological protection and sand - fix initially made the great progress. The enlargement of grassland and diminution of desert means the increase of oasis stability＇s. The water and wetland are always disturbed by highly degree. The forecast of the trend of landscape change by Markov Chain Model indicated that farm land ; water, wetland, highgrass and. middle grass will go on increasing, while lowgrass, saline land and desert land will decline. The study area will mainly consist of desert, grassland and farm land.