中文摘要：

文章应用3S技术完成对研究区各种生态景观面积数据的统计、地下水位空间动态模拟、野外实地调查及图片库的构建。结合灰色系统模型及多项式回归法，拟合出各种地表生态景观与平均地下潜水位之间的数学模型，将地下水与地表生态景观在时间与空间上予以结合。通过模型计算得出：自1983年起奇台县平均地下潜水位不断下降，24年间共降低了13.42m。随着地下潜水位的下降，奇台县的低草、中草和高草呈下降趋势，面积分别下降了32016.84hm^2，8169.04hm^2和8854.89hm^2，下降的面积分别占区域总面积的27.44%，7.00%和7.59%，其中低草面积下降最多，从模型预测结果看除中草外，低草、高草面积还将进一步下降。荒漠及盐碱地面积波动中上升，面积分别上升了13651.19hm^2和3878.52hm^2，上升的面积分别占区域总面积的11.70%和3.32%，预测结果进一步证明其面积还将增加。农田面积共增加9112.04hm^2，占区域总面积的7.81%，但预测结果表明，2006年和2007年农田面积出现下降趋势，如果不解决地下潜水位持续下降的问题，未来农田面积将会减少。计算结果表明该区域地下水位下降使得区域生态总体趋于退化。

英文摘要：

Xinjiang is an arid region of China, with water resource being the major tactor that restricts its economic development and environment improvement. The population and agricultural production of Xinjiang plain oasis expand continually in recent years, making the groundwater resource even more finite. Many problems, e. g., abandonment of karez, ecological degeneration, land collapse, and soil secondary salinization appeared. Based on previous achievements, we use 3S technology to complete the statistical data of landscape ecology and dynamic simulation of groundwater levels. Combining with gray system and polynomial fit, this paper simulates a mathematical model to quantitatively calculate the relationship between landscape ecology and groundwater level. The results show that since 1983 the groundwater level has decreased continuously to 13.42m. Accompanied with groundwater level decreasing, the distribution areas of shortgrass, midgrass and tallgrass decreased of 32016.84hm^2, 8169.04hm^2, and 8854.89hm^2, respectively, with the percentages of disappeared area in the whole area being 27.44%, 7.00%, and 7.59%, respectively, with area of shortgrass decreases the most. Our results predict that the areas of shortgrass and tallgrass will continuously decrease. The hungriness and salina areas have increased irregularly, of 13651.19hm^2 and 3878.52hm^2. Percentages of each increased area in whole area are 11.70% and 3.32%, respectively. It is predicted that the areas of hungriness and salina will continue to increase in the future. The area of farmland has been increased of 9112.04hm^2 and the percentage of increased area in whole area is 7.81%. It has been shown that the area of farmland has been decreased in 2006 and 2007 along with the continuous decreasing of groundwater level, and it will continue to decrease in the future. It has been shown that this method can easily combine landscape ecology with groundwater temporally and spatially and can also offer quantitative analysis which. In addition, the method can also