中文摘要：

本文以奇台为例分析了天山北坡人工绿洲开发与环境之间的关系,并对近十年来影响人工绿洲变化的主要因子进行了相关分析。研究认为奇台人工绿洲人地关系发展经历了三个阶段：第一阶段是20世纪50年代以前,“以水定地”的相对协调发展时期;第二阶段是20世纪50—80年代人地关系发展失衡时期,人工绿洲迅速扩张,水资源开发滞后,耕地因缺水灌溉而成为低产田,环境破坏严重,人地发展失衡的原因是政策因素;第三阶段是20世纪90年代以来人地关系脆弱平衡时期,决定其平衡的因素是不断增加的地下水开采量。通过对90年代以来社会经济因素与人工绿洲面积的灰色相关分析,认为人口和地下水开采量是对奇台人工绿洲可持续发展影响比较大的因素,而技术、经济增长是比较稳定的因素。

英文摘要：

The Qitai artificial oasis development and its relationship with environment and the social factors taking effecting on artificial oasis land change were analyzed by grey relation analysis. Then the sustainable development of Qitai artificial oasis was discussed. Researches showed that the oasis development has gone through three phases ： The first was harmonic stage before the middle of 20^th, the oasis developed according to water resources. The second was unharmonic stage from 1950＇s to 1980＇s because of unreasonable policies, that is cultivated area enlarged rapidly and water resources exploited backward. As a result, land output was lower, and environment destroyed heavily. The third stage is after 1980＇s , the new fragile balance between oasis and its environment was established on the base of the more and more ground water utilization. Researches also showed that population growth and ground water exploitation taking much more effluence on Qitai oasis sustainable development than technical and economic growth according to grey relation analysis.