中文摘要：

本文利用1994-2011年中美两国实体经济变量季度数据,采用施加过度识别约束的SVAR模型,分析了美国经济衰退对中国实体经济的冲击效应和传导机制。研究结果显示：美国经济衰退对中国GDP和固定资产投资产生明显的负面冲击;美国对中国出口和美国对中国直接投资是美国经济衰退的主要传导渠道;与美国对中国出口渠道相比,基于美国对中国直接投资渠道的传导作用相对较弱。

英文摘要：

Based on the quarterly economic data of U.S.and China from 1994 to 2011,this paper analyzes the the impact effect and transmission mechansim of U.S.recession to China＇s real economy by using SVAR model imposed on over-identified restrictions.Our results show that U.S.recession has a significant negative impact on China＇s GDP and fixed asset investment;U.S.exports to China and U.S.direct investment in China are both the transmission channels of U.S.recession;compared with the transmission channel of U.S.exports to China,the transmission channel of U.S.direct investment in China has a relatively weak effect to China＇s real economy.