中文摘要：

利用ArcGIS空间分析工具和食物营养模型,对我国主要7种耕地食物产品（水稻,小麦,玉米,高粱,谷子,大豆,油料）实际产量进行计算和分析,得到全国和各县耕地食物营养产量,结合县级人口数据,进行食物供需平衡分析。结果表明：①全国2360个县级行政单位中,1351个县（市、区）耕地食物热量供大于需（1995年-2005年平均值）,主要分布在东北平原、华北平原、江汉平原、洞庭湖平原、鄱阳湖平原、四川盆地等粮食主产区,另外1009个县（市、区）耕地食物热量供小于需,需要从外调入食物,或者利用本区域草地、林地和水域等食物;②耕地食物蛋白质供大于需的县（市、区）有896个,供小于需的县（市、区）有1464个;③耕地食物脂肪供大于需的县（市、区）仅有121个,供小于需的县（市、区）有2239个。脂肪的供给有较大的短缺,要保障食物安全,应优化种植结构,逐步使各类食物的供需达到平衡。东北、华北地区是我国食物供给充足有余的地区,应保护耕地食物供给可持续的发展;华中的长江中下游地区,耕地食物热量供给有较大盈余但蛋白质和脂肪有所短缺,需优化种植结构,增加富含蛋白质或富含油脂作物的种植和培育,以均衡食物供给。对于耕地食物不足的西部地区、北部地区和东南沿海地区的省区,保障食物调入渠道通畅的同时,应发挥地区优势,因地制宜的提高食物供给能力。

英文摘要：

The per-unit area yield of grain,oilseed and soybean in China presented a stable increasing trend during 1949-2008,indicating that,to some extent,China’s future food security situation is not serious as what was expected.However,in order to understand the current food situation of China,further studies such as food supply-demand-equilibrium analysis are needed.In this work,actual nutrition production of 7 main food crops,i.e.,rice,wheat,maize,sorghum, millet,soybean and oilseeds were calculated through the food-nutrition conversion formula based on county-scale yield data.Food provision at national,provincial and county levels was calculated respectively.By combining the food production with county-scale population data,we also analyzed the equilibrium between food nutrition supply-demand for counties and provinces in China.ArcGIS Spatial Analyst tools were used for data spatialization and calculations.Taking the year 2005 as an example,the 7 main cultivate-land-crops can generally provide 6.19×1012 MJ of calories,45.742×106t of protein and 18.560×106 t of fat.Given a well-off living level,the estimated food nutrition can sustain 1.766,1.547 and 0.753 billion people.This demonstrates that food calorie and protein were sufficient or somewhat surplus,but the food fat was deficient.Taking the average value in the period of 1995-2005,among 2360 counties（excluding Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macao）in China,the food calorie was surplus in 1351 counties primarily located in the major food production regions of China,such as the Northeast Plain,North China Plain,Jianghan Plain, Dongting Lake Plain,Poyang Lake Plain and Sichuan Basin.By contrast,the food calorie was found to be inadequate in the other 1009 counties,which needed to rely partly on other food sources such as grassland,woodland and aquatic ecosystems or food imported from other regions. For protein,896 counties could be satisfied but 1464 counties were faced with shortage.As for fat, 121 counties attained sufficiency but 2239 counties were faced with shorta