中文摘要：

本文在对中国西北13个内陆河流域水资源禀赋和社会经济发展状况进行对比研究的基础上,指出在人口不断增长和社会经济结构不适宜的情况下,人均水资源量的不断减少,将导致流域内绿洲重心逐渐从下游向中游、上游迁移.通过对干旱内陆河三级流域区绿洲演化历史的实证分析,综合考虑社会经济发展与水资源禀赋两方面因素,本文提出了干旱内陆河流域绿洲演化的生态警戒线和生态警戒区间,并对中游主导型流域的绿洲演化模式进行了评价.应用生态警戒线及生态警戒区间,将绿洲系统稳定性状况作为流域是否超载的评价标准,本文量化计算了人均水资源量少于3 000m3的内陆河流域的水资源承载能力.

英文摘要：

Based on a comparative study of the social economic development and the water resources characteristics in 13 arid inland basins of north-western China, it is pointed out that oasis will move from lower reach to upper reach in the circumstances of lower water availability per capita and poorer social economic structures. A significant ecological warning line and warning interval of oasis evolvement are given by synthesizing evidence of social economic development and water resources characteristics. Applying the criterion, the quantitative water resource earrying capacities are evaluated for those basins with water availability per capita less than 3 000m^3 .