中文摘要：

利用上海市2006-2009年的盗窃案件数据，基于ArcGIS及Excel软件，运用描述性统计、核密度估计等方法，分析了上海市盗窃案件的空间分布、时间分布，以及时空分布规律。研究表明：空间上，上海市盗窃案件密度在中心城区最高，向周边区域衰减，并在远郊某些地区出现孤立热点；时间上，以时、日、月为尺度的盗窃案件分布表现出各自的周期规律；2006-2009年，盗窃案件数持续上升的区域主要是在郊区，持续下降的区域主要是在市区。研究成果能为犯罪预防以及案件侦破提供依据。

英文摘要：

A spatio - temporal analysis of theft cases in Shanghai for the period of 2006 - 2009 was carried out with the help of technology such as descriptive statistics and kernel density estimation, based on ArcGIS and Excel softwares. The objective of this article is to find the space and time characteristics and spatio - temporal characteristics of the theft cases. The results show that in terms of the space the density of theft cases is the highest in the central area and declines in the neighborhood, and some in solar hot spots were founded in the remote rural area; the time -of- day, time -of- week and time -of- year data indicate respective periodic characteristics. In the period of 2006 - 2009, the areas with an increasing theft cases are mainly in the rural areas while areas with a declining cases are urban ones. The results can be used by related agencies for adopting better planning and management strategies for crime prevention as well as solving eases.