中文摘要：

为探寻上海客运交通结构在不同轨道交通发展规模下的演变特征，以上海市2004年、2009年综合交通调查数据为基础，采用系统动力学方法建立了上海客运交通结构演变的系统动力学模型．通过对世界主要大城市轨道交通密度与人口密度的统计分析，总结出轨道网高密度发展和轨道网低密度发展两种发展模式，利用系统动力学模型对高、低、中密度3种轨道交通发展模式下上海客运交通结构的发展进行了定量分析，为上海市交通发展模式的选择和轨道交通规模的确定提供参考．

英文摘要：

Based on the data from comprehensive transportation survey of Shanghai in 2004 and 2009, constructed a model of Shanghai passenger transportation structure in the methods and steps of system dynamics in order to analyze the evolution of transportation structure. By statistical analysis of some major cities＇ rail density and population density, two rail transit development modes are found out including high-density rail transit development mode and low-density rail transit development mode. By quantitative analysis of the evolution of Shanghai passenger transportation structure in different density rail transit development mode comparatively, a reference is provided for Shanghai to select the scale of rail transit and the traffic development mode.