中文摘要：

预期失效分析（AFD）是在TRIZ理论基础上发展起来的I-TRIZ中风险分析的应用.由于该方法具有相对于传统失效分析方法的诸多优点,因而成为当前失效分析方法研究的热点.但已有的研究大多针对于AFD的失效分析,而对其失效预测的研究甚少；AFD方法在找出失效后,对于失效的消除缺乏系统的方法研究.文中在分析对比传统失效分析方法与AFD的基础上,将TRIZ中的冲突解决理论引入到AFD中,建立一种基于冲突解决的扩展的失效预测模板,并对该模板进行了流程分析.最后将扩展的失效预测模板应用于工程实例中进行了验证.

英文摘要：

AFD is the application of the risk analysis in I- TRIZ which is derived from the TRIZ. Because of its advantages compared with the traditional failure analysis, AFD becomes one re- search focus in failure analysis field. But the current research most- ly focused on the failure analysis function of AFD, there has little study for it＇ s another function-failure prediction. But, AFD method has no effective methods available yet to support failure elimination. Based on the analysis and comparison of the traditional failure anal- ysis and AFD, conflict solving principle is introduced into the AFD method, and an extensional failure prediction template based on conflict solving is constructed in this paper. The work flow analysis of this template is given and the this paper finally applies it to the engineering example.