中文摘要：

中国奶业快速发展过程中,原料奶的供给与需求矛盾日益突出,制约了奶业的进一步发展。原料奶供给内部的矛盾主要表现在区域间供给不平衡、饲料价格与原料奶收购价格间的矛盾、不同养殖方式的成本与收益间的矛盾以及区域间成本与收益的矛盾等。原料奶需求内部的矛盾主要有区域内部乳品企业过度集中导致争抢原料奶、外资乳企与国内乳企争夺奶源以及进口奶粉价格下调与国内原料奶价格上涨间的矛盾等方面。原料奶供求间的矛盾包括原料奶生产与乳品企业数量及加工能力间的矛盾、优质原料奶供给与需求间的矛盾以及乳品企业与奶农利益分配间的矛盾等。原料奶的供求矛盾导致原料奶供大于求或供不应求,对奶业发展造成了不利影响：原料奶供大于求时,奶农＂卖奶难＂;供不应求时,乳品企业＂买奶难＂。为促进中国奶业持续健康稳定发展,应采取平衡原料奶供给需求关系的相关政策措施。

英文摘要：

With the fast growth of dairy production in China,the contradiction between raw milk supply and demand is becoming more serious,which has influenced the development of dairy industry in China.In this paper,we analyzed the raw milk supply and demand from supply side,demand side and both supply and demand sides,respectively.The results indicated that the raw milk supply and demand in China is in the state of contradiction.The two scenarios of over supply and short supply have been considered and their influences on the dairy industry have also been analyzed.Finally,we gave some policy recommendations in how to balance the raw milk supply and demand in China.