内部能源价格相对指数可以衡量经济系统价格承受水平上的能源价格变动。以对经济系统的调节效应为切入点,引入具有“一般均衡”属性的内部能源价格相对指数,采用OLS回归、E—G两步法协整检验和岭回归等方法,构建直接效应和综合调节效应模型。结果验证了价格相对指数通过调节能源技术效率和经济总量抑制能源消耗在理论上可行,但其对于产业结构调节的路径存在阻滞。而不同波动周期的能源价格在调节能源技术效率控制能耗方面存在显著的“对称”调节效应,能源价格下降期对技术效率改进的忽视和价格恢复期的低效与非理性使能耗陷入恶性循环。结合我国实际:当前节能需要考虑多渠道的综合调节作用,合理提升能源价格应与利用能源价格波动周期和加快技术效率提升等并行,以最终降低能耗。
Abstract: Intemal Energy Price Relative Indices (IEPRI) measure the relative change of energy prices under the price affordability level of an economic system. Using the adjusting effect to the economic system as the entry point, we introduce the Internal Energy Price Relative Indices with the attribute of general equilibrium, and the variable of energy technology efficiency measured by the DEA productivity index method based on national provincial panel data. Using OLS regression, E-G two-step co-integration tests, Ridge regression and other methods, we built a comprehensive moderating effect model which is more in line with economic realities. Our results show that Internal Energy Price Relative Indices can suppress energy consumption by adjusting the energy technology efficiency and GDP; the effectiveness of the later is stronger, while the industrial structure adjustment path was in block. Further decomposition of energy price has witnessed a significant 'symmetrical' effect on energy prices whereby different fluctuation periods control energy consumption by adjusting energy technology efficiency. The overlook of advance energy technical efficiency during the decline periods of energy prices and low energy efficiency combined with irrationality energy consumption trapped energy consumption into a vicious cycle. needs to consider a comprehensive regulation during recovery periods of energy prices, has We conclude that current energy saving policy of multi-channels: increasing energy prices reasonably should be in parallel with the use of energy price volatility cycles and accelerating technological efficiency so as to ultimately reduce energy consumption.