中文摘要：

理论上讲,贸易中的碳排放转移效应既包括直接能耗效应,又涵盖通过产业总量、结构、技术产生的间接调节效应。通过构建贸易与碳排放的长期关系、产业调节效应及状态空间模型,借助VAR、岭回归等方法研究发现：江苏省对外贸易的直接能耗效应显著,应成为争取国际碳排放配额的论据;而通过产业总量、结构和技术对碳排放产生有效的正向、负向和反向调节,正向效力的强度大于负向。因此,贸易发展的同时要实现碳排放控制目标,需充分发掘产业结构和技术渠道的减排作用。

英文摘要：

In theory,the transfer effect of carbon emissions embodied in international trade,includes two kinds of effect.One is direct effects of energy consumption,the other is indirect moderating effects of industry aggregate,structure,and technolo gy.By constructing trade and carbon emission’s long term relationship,moderating effect and state space models,with the methods such as VAR and the ridge regression,the paper found that international trade’s direct effects of energy consumption is significant in Jiangsu province,which can be used as evidence of obtaining more carbon emission.The international trade had positive,negative and negative adjusting effects on carbon emission respectively by industry aggregate,structure and tech nology,and the intensity of the former is bigger than the others.Therefore,it should control the carbon emission effectively with the rapid development of international trade,and exploit the reduction function of industry structure and technology chan nels fully.