中文摘要：

对决定一个科学理论（或一项技术）知识增长的创造力、淘汰能力以及学习能力进行动态模拟分析发现,一个科学理论（或一项技术）的早期发展水平主要是由创造能力决定的,学习能力以及淘汰率的影响主要表现在该科学理论（或技术）发展的中后期或者后期,并且论述了科学理论发展周期的五个阶段及其各自的特点,并以生态城市的理论发展为例,说明科学理论发展的周期特征。

英文摘要：

In this paper,the authors make simulation analysis of the creation,elimination,and learning of the knowledge growth of one scientific theory / technology.The development of scientific theory / technology is majorly decided by creation,when the influence of learning and elimination occurs in the late-mid or late period.The authors also discuss the five periods and their features of the development of scientific theory.Taking the development of theories of ecological city,the authors describe the periodic features.