中文摘要：

提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的配电网可靠性评估算法。以配电网可靠性评估的分块为基础,建立配电网4层贝叶斯网络,即元件层、分块层、负荷点层和系统层。根据配电网分块形成的等效网络,建立元件层和分块层间的关系;通过解析枚举分块及开关元件的故障,得到负荷点的节点类型,建立分块层和负荷点层间的关系,并通过矩阵存储实现负荷点可靠性计算;建立负荷点层和系统层间的关系,实现系统可靠性计算。根据贝叶斯网络的双向推理功能,提出通过元件可靠性参数辨识负荷点薄弱环节的方法,及通过各元件分摊的期望缺供电量指标辨识系统薄弱环节的方法。对RBTS母线2等算例系统进行可靠性评估和分析,验证了算法的正确性和高效性。

英文摘要：

A reliability evaluation algorithm for electrical distribution networks（EDN） based on the Bayesian network was proposed.Based on the section technique for EDN reliability evaluation,a four-layer Bayesian network of EDN,including component layer,section layer,load point layer and system layer,was built.The relationship between the component and section layer was built according to the equivalent network formed through the EDN sectioning.The node types of load points were obtained with the analytical method of enumerating the faults of the branch sections and switching devices.The relationship between the section and load point layer was built,and the reliability calculation of the load points was realized through the matrix store technique.The reliability calculation of the system was evaluated based on the relationship between the load points and system layer.According to the bi-directional reasoning function of the Bayesian network,the method of identifying the weak parts of load points through identifying the reliability parameters of the components and the method of identifying the weak parts of the EDN through the component allocated index of the expected electricity shortage quantity were proposed.The reliability evaluation and analysis of the example of RBTS-BUS2 were made.The results verified the validity and high efficiency of the algorithm.