中文摘要：

渤海海域污染日趋严重，无机氮是主要的污染因子，对无机氮未来趋势的预测及风险空间分布的分析可为减缓和管理渤海海域污染提供依据。本文基于2000到2011年渤海无机氮的趋势性监测数据，用IDW插值和回归分析方法对其发展趋势进行预测，并根据其发展趋势预测今后5年渤海海域无机氮含量，划分了渤海无机氮污染的高、中、较低和低风险区，为渤海无机氮污染控制提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

The pollution in Bohai Sea has become more and more serious in recent years with inorganic nitrogen as a key pollution factor. Accurate prediction of future trends and risk spatial distribution of inorganic nitrogen could provide important evidence for reducing and managing the marine pollution. In this paper, a IDW interpolation method and a regression analysis method were used to predict the development trend of inorganic nitrogen in Bohai Sea, based on the monitoring data of inorganic nitrogen from year 2000 to 2011. The content of inorganic nitrogen during the future five years was predicted accordingly. Furthermore, the whole Bohai Sea was divided to zones with high, medium, lower and lowest inorganic nitrogen pollution risk, which could provide a scientific evidence for control of inorganic nitrogen pollution in Bohai sea.