中文摘要：

目的将为温度和死亡获得暴露反应关系，并且估计热相关的早熟的死亡的风险。一个统计模型用泊松被开发的方法从 2006 年 10 月 1 日与北京死亡和温度数据概括了线性回归模型到 2008 年 9 月 30 日。我们在中央城市，和内部郊外、外部的郊外的区域里为温度和死亡计算了暴露反应关系。基于这种关系，一个健康风险模型被用来在 2009 的夏天(到 8 月的 6 月) 估计热相关的早熟的死亡的风险。结果在外部郊区的人口有最高温度相关的死亡风险。中央城市里的人有中间范围的风险，当在内部郊区的人有最低风险时。风险评价预言在 2009 的夏天的热相关的早熟的死亡的数字是 1581。Chaoyang 和 Haidian 区域的城市区域有早熟的死亡的最高的数字。在北京(Fangshan， Fengtai， Daxing，和 Tongzhou 区域) 的南部的区域的早熟的死亡的数字在中间范围。结论周围的温度显著地在北京影响人的死亡。城市和外部郊外的区域里的人在内部郊外的区域比人有更高温度相关的死亡风险。这可以被温度相关的危险解释。

英文摘要：

Objective To obtain the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality, and assess the risk of heat-related premature death. Methods A statistical model was developed using a Poisson generalized linear regression model with Beijing mortality and temperature data from October 1st, 2006 to September 30th, 2008. We calculated the exposure-response relationship for temperature and mortality in the central city, and inner suburban and outer suburban regions. Based on this relationship, a health risk model was used to assess the risk of heat-related premature death in the summer （June to August） of 2009. Results The population in the outer suburbs had the highest temperature-related mortality risk. People in the central city had a mid-range risk, while people in the inner suburbs had the lowest risk. Risk assessment predicted that the number of heat-related premature deaths in the summer of 2009 was 1581. The city areas of Chaoyang and Haidian districts had the highest number of premature deaths. The number of premature deaths in the southern areas of Beijing （Fangshan, Fengtai, Daxing, and Tongzhou districts） was in the mid-range. Conclusion Ambient temperature significantly affects human mortality in Beijing. People in the city and outer suburban area have a higher temperature-related mortality risk than people in the inner suburban area. This may be explained by a temperature-related vulnerability. Key words： Temperature; Mortality; Premature death; Health risk; Generalized linear regression model; Climate change