中文摘要：

面向空间机械臂在轨操作任务的高可靠性需求，基于运动可靠性影响因素多层映射模型开展灵敏度分析，为空间机械臂任务规划和控制决策制定提供理论依据。综合考虑空间机械臂几何参数、控制变量和柔性因素对运动可靠性的影响，建立运动可靠性影响因素的多层映射模型，实现各因素耦合关系和对运动可靠性递推关系的表征；以此为基础，融入在轨任务约束构造极限状态函数，引入非线性响应面方法实现灵敏度的快速求解，在避免传统方法中多维积分连续偏导问题的同时满足了在轨实时应用需求。通过仿真试验，实现了对各类运动可靠性因素的灵敏度求解，验证了多层映射模型的准确性和非线性响应面方法对求解运动可靠性灵敏度的有效性，并对灵敏度在任务周期内的时变性进行了探讨。

英文摘要：

Considering the high reliability requirement for on-orbit operation of space manipulator, the sensitivity of motion reliability, which is adopted as the rule of planning missions and developing control strategy, is analysed based on the multilayer mapping model of factors influencing motion reliability. Taking the geometrical parameters, control variables and flexible factors into account, the multilayer mapping model is established, which can represent the coupling relations of factors and the recursion relations to motion reliability. On the basis, the limit state function is constructed with the mission constraints of space manipulator. And sensitivity is calculated by the introduction of the nonlinear response surface method with high efficiency. As a result, the continuous partial derivatives on multi-dimensional integral function are avoided and the real-time requirement for sensitivity analysis is guaranteed. By simulation experiments, the sensitivity of each factor influencing motion reliability of space manipulator is analysed. The validity of the multilayer mapping model is verified and the effectiveness of response surface method is also proved in sensitivity analysis of motion reliability. Further, the time-varying characteristics of sensitivity during missions are discussed.