中文摘要：

以城镇化过程持续加速而耕地流失及粮食供需形势日趋严峻的太湖流域为研究区,结合遥感、土壤、气象及农业统计数据,借助AEZ模型和GIS开展1985-2010年土地利用变化对耕地生产力的影响分析及评价。结果表明：1流域耕地生产力水平较高,高产耕地分布广泛;2近30 a来就地城镇化和工业化发展导致流域建设用地快速扩张,耕地数量锐减;3由于减少的多为城市周边及交通沿线水土条件优越的优质耕地,新增的则多是来源于土地复垦或整理的低产耕地,＂高产耕地锐减-低产耕地缓增＂导致流域耕地生产力水平下降,且在不同发展阶段下降格局不同;4高产田锐减导致流域粮食大幅减产,不同县域由于经济发展水平和耕地利用条件不同,粮食减幅呈现显著空间差异。

英文摘要：

With gradual population increase and rapid economic development,the change of land use patterns continued to accelerate and the cropland resources were fast dwindling in Taihu Lake Basin.As a result,these changes significantly impact arableland productivity and regional food security. This article attempts to carry out factor analyses and assessments of the effect of land use change on cultivated land productivity in Taihu Lake Basin.It has been done by grid processin and spatially superposed operating through combining climate data derived from spatial interpolation,digitized soil data,remote sensing data derived from multi-source inver-sion,and agricultural statistics data.In addition,this study employed AEZ model simulation and GIS technology. The main results can be obtained as follows：1） The grading results of cultivated land productivity show that the level of productivity of arable land is high and high-quality arable land is widely distributed; 2） The local indus-trialization and urbanization lead to the rapid expansion of construction land and the significant decline of culti-vated land in 1985-2010;3） The change of cultivated land is characteristized by the feature that＂a sharp drop in high-yield cultivated land and a slow increasing in low-yield cultivated land＂.Since those reduced cultivated land that along cities and traffic always have high quality after long-term cultivation,whereas those new cultivat-ed land that generated from land reclamation always have low soil quality.Thus it lead to the decline in the level of overall productivity of cultivated land and the decline pattern is different in the two different stages of 1985-2000 and 2000-2010;4） The food production reducing of Taihu Lake Basin can be mainly contributed by the decrease of cultivated land with high quality. Besides, the reduction of food production is different varies in different counties owing to different economic development levels and various condition of cultivated land use.