经济增长对资源消耗存在很大的依赖性,研究能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系,可为经济增长方式转变和低碳城市建设提供重要科学依据。基于IPCC国家温室气体排放清单指南中的方法估算了无锡市能源消费碳排放,并建立“脱钩”模型探讨能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年,无锡市碳排放从843.35万t增加到2528.04万t,总量不断增加,但趋势有所减缓,且各县市碳排放特征差异显著;(2)无锡市碳排放与经济增长整体处于弱脱钩状态,且脱钩状态有不断增强的趋势,市区经济发展已不依赖于能源消费,朝着环境友好方向发展,江阴和宜兴节能减排压力仍然很大;(3)优化产业结构、调整工业结构和提高能源利用效率是改善无锡市能源消费、碳排放和经济增长关系的有效途径,各县市根据具体情况,侧重点有所不同。
Global economic growth in the last few decades has caused various negative effects, such as environmental degradation, global warming, water deterioration, etc. Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation have attracted more and more attentions from the domestic and international. China has been one of the largest CO2 emitters in the world,and is considered responsible for two-third global increase in anthropogenic COe emissions of 3.1% in 2007. Chinese government has committed to cut CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 400/oo - 45G by 2020 against the 2005 level, while total amount of CO2 emissions in China is expected to increase,due to the projected lasting economic growth and increase in energy demand. Thus, urban area has been a critical part for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, due to its large amounts of population and productive enterprise. Wuxi is a well-known industrial city in China and has experienced rapid economic growth over the last few decades. However,its economic growth deeply depends on resources consumption, and the reduction of carbon emissions will have an important impact on its economic growth. Carbon emissions from energy consumption was estimated at the county-level in Wuxi based on the IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, and one "decoupling" model was established to investigate the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. The results showed as follows. (1) Carbon emissions in Wuxi increased from 8,433,500 tons in 2000 to 25,280,400 tons in 2010. Total amount was at the increasing trend,whilst the increasing rate was generally decreasing, and the characteristic of carbon emissions at the county-level presented obvious spatial heterogeneity. Urban district had the smallest contribution for carbon emissions reduction,Jiangyin had become the main area with the increasing growth of carbon emissions,and Yixing was expected to continue at the lower level of carbon emissions growth. (2) The relatio